One of my life aspirations is to be a data journalist/blogger (A chess-playing Nate Silver or something like that). Forgive me for turning you all into guinea pigs as I test out my skills.

 I am convinced the staid prose and utter lifelessness of academic and scientific writing is unnecessary. Writing poetically and analytically need not be mutually exclusive. In fact, the best analytical writing ought to be embedded within the romance of a human narrative, so long as your audience is human beings and not robots. 

It does require trust between the writer and the audience. In this post, I will be as authentic as I can be and promise no moralism besides the hope of living in a world that continues to be inhabited by people.

I am speaking of the Fertility Crisis. I dreaded writing the word “Crisis” as we are flooded with its use every time we engage with media. Between the pandemic, the climate crisis, AI taking over the world, and the ongoing wars overseas, some people are calling the current state of the world a polycrisis. I agree with the concept. However, I have a problem with the implications of describing the world this way. It encourages people to live in a state of panic (Which is seldom the proper response to a problem), and it also implies that intersecting crises are novel (They are part and parcel of the historical human experience). 

I may be naive, but I believe we will make headway in many of these issues. 

So, What is the Fertility Crisis? It is the near-universal dropping of the number of births per woman to under the replacement rate of 2.1. If a country is under 2.1 births per woman, then, in the long run, its population will grow older and eventually shrink.

There is considerable variability by country, but only Africa is exempt thus far. East Asian countries are the worst affected. Japan’s (1.3) and China’s(1.1) populations are already shrinking, which will only accelerate in the coming decades. South Korea has the lowest rate of 0.8 births per woman. This statistic implies for every 100 great-grandparents, there will be four great-grandchildren—a drop of 96%.

Europe (1.5) is not quite as bad and the USA (1.8) is better still. Immigration also makes up for the deficit, though most countries immigrants come from are on the same downward trajectory.

Many argue there are already too many people on the planet, probably sweating in the sweltering heat sitting in traffic. So, what’s wrong with a global population decrease?

Well, there are economic issues associated with a simultaneous decrease in the workforce and an increase in retirees. The tax burden on workers will doubly increase, the number of workers will be insufficient to care for the elderly population, and asset values could collapse from inadequate demand.

There are societal issues with a lack of workers to provide essential services for the continuation of society. Nurses, police officers, bus drivers, military personnel, and many other jobs will face shortages, making it difficult for a country to operate. Many worry about societal collapse.

The technological progress needed to reduce poverty and improve environmental sustainability will likely slow down due to a decline in the absolute numbers and the proportionality of tech workers. Essential services could suck up an ever higher proportion of total workers.

To me, the saddest of all is the lack of youthfulness. It would be a rather dim world if there were disproportionately more crotchety adults like me and fewer kids discovering the world anew. 

In the next post, I will go through the causes of the crises and the potential solutions.

I am headed to Austin Texas next weekend after a nice holiday break in Orlando.