As my last post so unartfully displayed, Economists have a well-earned reputation as the practitioners of the “dismal” science. The prognosis for the fertility crisis is rather bleak, but I think we will figure it out, much the way human beings solve most long-term problems.

But first, we need to identify the causes of fertility dropping from the historical average of 5-8 births per woman to the low levels we see today. They are multi-faceted. Note that given the increase in life expectancy and decrease in childhood mortality, the fertility rate had to drop substantially to avoid living in a world with 100 billion people.

Over the past century, Women’s education has taken off at an incredible rate. While this is probably the best social change over that time for a plethora of reasons, it also significantly negatively correlates with the number of children a woman will have. Not only have women excelled in education, but they have blown past men so rapidly that many highly educated women can’t find men that match their education level.

However, the causes are numerous. 

Sperm counts are cratering. Soon, the median man will be infertile. This is likely due to parabens, phthalates, and other man-made chemicals in the water supply, hygienic products, and cooking products. Men may also be less interested in dating due to testosterone rates similarly dropping. Widely available contraception has also allowed people to control fertility decisions in previously impossible ways. 

Additionally, mimicry is a potent societal force. It used to be expected to have families with 4-7 kids, but now people raise their eyebrows when they hear that. 1-3 children has become the more standard expectation for families. 

Student loans saddling young people with debt, exploding housing prices reducing home ownership, and the high cost of childcare are all economic issues that prevent people from feeling financially capable of raising children.

Lastly, our current technological age has caused loneliness and breakdowns of community life. Internet communities are not adequate replacements. Historically, Most people met their significant others from their social circles. Dating apps have proven how hard it is to meet people in a more atomized individualistic world.

It’s stunning how many forces are all pointing in the same direction. It kinda seems like modern life isn’t well suited to… well life. 

Governments are crafting policies to turn it around, but at best, they can only affect the economic problems. Early indications are that these policies are having a minimal impact.

Long-term collective action problems are very tricky to solve. Sometimes, technology, governments, or cultural movements can help. But, usually, they are only solved once the problem becomes so severe and painful that everyone bands together and does the work necessary to solve it.

Far in the future, some cultural movements will probably solve it. 

In the meantime, I see my journey as part of the search for solutions in this particular cultural moment. A moment where people are struggling to connect with one another. A moment where we find ourselves in a radically different environment than people are used to living in.

Life Update: I am officially in Austin, Texas and started my Sketch Comedy class, which will hopefully improve my writing.

And there are cats at the airbnb… That’s a first for me.